New York and the World Looks forward to July 1, 2010

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In the minds of many Knick fans, the NBA season doesn’t officially start until LeBron James is in a New York uniform in 2010. While his man Jay-Z dangles the new arena in Brooklyn with super young talent like a platinum chain on loan, the Garden fans went “Wall Street” on November 25, collectively calling like mutual fund investors, paying in applause at the expense of their home teams’ feelings. They, along with the Knick organization, brokered a forward contract that night on LeBron’s emotions; the fandom feeling it was worth the risk to show what he would mean to the world’s greatest city.

Team management also did their part, timing the moment like a well-timed block trade, shipping out big contracts to free up the money right before he arrived. Credit Knick management for purchasing the option and giving a thanksgiving-hope-for-the-best-bond to all Knick fans. This was all business and the spot date of July 1, 2010, is marked by New York and the world as the start of a new competition.

Just imagine the standing ovation that LeBron would receive during the first regular season game in October 2010 at the Garden. The sound itself would rival the Willis Reed Game 7 legendary NBA finals entrance in 1970 against the Lakers. The NBA marketing machine would show good scheduling skill and bring Garnett and Pierce or The Kobe to MSG for an event that would be on par with the 1964 Beetle touchdown on American soil or the Ali vs Frazier thriller in Manila boxing match in 1975. 

All would be good, as Commissioner Stern  considers his newly-minted $7.4 billion dollar deal with Walt Disney and Time Warner with the speculative LeBron option filled, the one that includes the unspoken league dream of coast-to-coast bookends of Laker Kobe, Knick LeBron and rising viewership.

But as the international basketball scene grows and the euro maintains its superior exchange value, could the big stadium soccer and satellite revenue of a team like Real Madrid in Spain get LeBron? What about Italy, a country with a strong basketball tradition, a sports junkie for a Prime Minister, who happened to be an owner of the AC Milan sports franchises, President of the European Union in 2006, and currently making pay-per-view sports investments all over Europe?

Enter Silvio Berlusconi. He could recruit him to play in Italy while holding a chip in his pocket for his former business partner — Adriano Galliani, co-owner of Olympia Milan Basketball and current vice president of soccer giant AC Milan - the luring of Kobe Bryant to Olympia Milano to play in Milan in the 2011 season, setting up a league now with the world’s top two players. More on that later. 

The big gorilla that could bring this whole thing to a real negotiation is Adidas. Would it be willing to work behind-the-scenes to build European basketball by breaking the bank and giving LeBron his iconic moment, offering him $200 million dollars and encouraging him to sign with a team they already sponsor through their extensive soccer and basketball network? Both Madrid and Milan are Adidas properties and they have their eyes focused on LeBron’s expiring 7-year $90 million dollar Nike contract that is up in 2010. It could get interesting.  

While NBA brass maintains a position that no one player is bigger than the sport, Michael Jordan transformed his NBA playing career to a perpetual sold-out occurrence, directly contributing to an exponential increase in television revenue for the league. The league would be crazy to not acknowledge LeBron’s importance to ads and promotions. When Jordan entered his prime in 1991, the television contract at the time was $876 million dollars, up from $102 million in 1984. In 2008, the present contract is now at $4.6 billion dollars, a lot of guaranteed cheddar that should not be taken for granted since it would be a blow to lose the leagues most exciting player to a hungry league.

An entire American sports culture was built on the force of Jordan. It transformed Nike and the NBA into a global revenue-producing machine. No one player has ever matched that moment and it is well known that LeBron’s intent is to be a world icon. A shoe introduction couldn’t match it, but a complete jump to Europe on a pay-per-view format making players investors like boxers could be the worldwide moment in sports history he’s seeking as he enters his professional prime.

How much would it take? I feel it would be a combination of things. First he would have to be paid like the highest paid European Soccer star, Ronaldinho, who makes $29.5 million per year and the highest paid American baseball star, Alex Rodriguez, who makes $27.5 million per year combined. Why?  No superstar American has jumped to Europe in his prime. Reports on the internet have the number LeBron is seeking at $50 million a year.

As far as the sneaker deal, he could conceivably double his current contract re-signing with Nike. Adidas would have to counter with more money and a comprehensive shoe and promotion package that has never been seen before. His present endorsements include Coca-Cola and Upperdeck, the amount a strong $170 million dollars earned over a seven year period. He’s going to double that this time around.

The X-Factor could be his next beverage sponsorship. LeBron’s 6-year $12.96 million deal Coca-Cola deal is expiring next year and they have Yao Ming in China as an endorser. If LeBron leaves for Europe, his appeal could only increase world-wide as a trailblazer, giving a company like Pepsi the incentive to bid hard for his services. His package could approach a staggering $350 million dollars over a 5-year period without salary and pay-per-view/ownership revenue. 

So Kobe Bryant’s ownership stake in Milan enters the equation, the team Italy’s Prime Minister Berlusconi’s used to own. A similar Italian or Spanish ownership opportunity could make it real for LeBron and create either an international mega-rivalry between Kobe and LeBron that involves investment, ownership, and entrepreneurship. 

So check this scenario. LeBron wins a title by 2010 and takes a deal in Italy acquiring an ownership stake like Kobe in an Italian team, signing for $50 million for 3 years. Kobe wins an NBA title this year (a distinct possibility), returns for another year and loses trying to repeat. After that run, he looks for another challenge. Kobe’s contract has a player opt-out in 2011, so he decides to become a free agent and signs for the same amount.

His reasoning is that he can become an owner/player with the chance of winning an NBA and European championship, which could mean a lot to him since he was born in Italy. Following LeBron, they both embark on a once-in-a-lifetime-ultra-money-opportunity: to create a strong basketball pay-per-view market in Europe, which is already built for it because of its one-game-a-week format.

Two Americans getting euros, going against each other from anywhere to 4 to 11 games during the year, between regular season and playoffs appearances, for a pay-per-view rate that could range between a low-end number of $19.99, the price of a regular season English League Soccer game to the high-end of $54.95, the price of the Oscar De La Hoya vs Floyd Mayweather fight, which was the highest grossing match in the history of boxing. A Kobe vs LeBron championship match-up could demand major money. 

That coupled with endorsements could create the possibility of two basketball owner/players approaching three-quarters of a billion dollars in a 5-year period, with both reaching the plateau of billionaires by their mid-40s if the world economy holds up, as owners of a newly created basketball market that attracts more and more prime talent from America. Sounds crazy considering NBA positioning, but money talks.

So while New Yorkers hope that winning an NBA title means more to LeBron James than playing in Europe, let’s see how LeBron and his agent play the speculation game which could change the landscape of professional basketball forever.

This story is filed under: 45 Degrees of Blackness, Sports